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The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has seen a flurry of international commentary and speculation about potential resolutions. Amidst this, the possibility of a US President receiving recognition for their role in mediating a peace deal has been raised. However, Strategic Analysis Australia Director Michael Shoebridge is unequivocal: Donald Trump is highly unlikely to be awarded any 'peace prize' for his actions related to Ukraine.

Shoebridge's assessment, delivered with characteristic clarity, underscores the complex geopolitical realities at play. He argues that Trump’s past rhetoric and actions regarding Russia, particularly his perceived reluctance to strongly condemn Vladimir Putin's aggression, have severely undermined any potential for him to be seen as a credible peacemaker in the eyes of both Ukraine and the international community.

A History of Ambivalence

The analysis hinges on a careful examination of Trump's history. Throughout his presidency, his relationship with Putin was a source of constant scrutiny and concern. He often downplayed Russian interference in US elections and expressed admiration for Putin's leadership style. This has fostered a perception, rightly or wrongly, that Trump is sympathetic to Russia’s interests, making it difficult to envision him as an impartial arbiter in the Ukrainian conflict.

Furthermore, Trump’s isolationist tendencies and his preference for transactional diplomacy have alienated key allies, weakening the united front that is essential for effectively addressing international crises. A peace deal brokered by Trump would likely be viewed with deep suspicion by Ukraine and its European partners, who would fear that it would prioritize US interests over the security and sovereignty of Ukraine.

Putin's Position and the Obstacles to Peace

Shoebridge’s assessment also implicitly acknowledges the intransigence of Vladimir Putin. Putin's stated goals in the conflict remain unclear, but they appear to involve the subjugation of Ukraine and the dismantling of its democratic institutions. Any peace deal that falls short of these objectives is unlikely to be accepted by Putin, and Trump’s willingness to make concessions to appease Putin would only embolden further Russian aggression.

Beyond Trump: The Path to a Lasting Peace

While Trump’s prospects of a 'peace prize' are slim, the need for a resolution to the conflict remains urgent. A sustainable peace will require a concerted effort from a broad coalition of nations, guided by principles of international law and respect for Ukrainian sovereignty. It will necessitate a shift in Putin’s calculus, a recognition that his pursuit of military conquest is ultimately unsustainable and self-defeating.

The focus should be on bolstering Ukraine’s defenses, providing humanitarian aid to those affected by the war, and maintaining sanctions against Russia to pressure Putin to negotiate in good faith. Ultimately, a lasting peace will be built not on the whims of individual leaders, but on the foundations of a stable and secure international order.

Michael Shoebridge’s analysis serves as a stark reminder that geopolitical realities are rarely simple or easily manipulated. While the desire for peace is universal, achieving it requires a clear-eyed assessment of the challenges and a commitment to principles that transcend short-term political considerations.